The ask
A leading offshore services provider was considering a subcontractor role surveying cable routes in the Taiwan Strait, collaborating with a prominent regional offshore company.
Tensions in the region between the People's Republic of China (PRC) and Taiwan was escalating, and had included recent maritime incidents, frequent incursions across the median line of the Taiwan Strait and an intensification of U.S. Navy Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPS) and regional strategic deployments.
ERS was tasked with providing the offshore services provider with a comprehensive intelligence assessment to determine whether the contract would expose them to unacceptable risks.
What we did
ERS undertook a comprehensive intelligence analysis, including:
Geopolitical Context: A detailed overview of historical and current tensions between the PRC and Taiwan, including the PRC’s response to recent elections and increased risk potential confrontations in the Taiwan Strait.
Current Maritime and Military Activity: Up-to-date analysis of recent maritime incidents, including confrontations between the PRC and Taiwan's coast guard agencies, and a detailed account of the PRC’s military activities in the region.
Assessment of Operational Risks: Assessment of the likelihood of various risk scenarios, such as potential interference by PRC maritime and aerial assets, and the potential impact of U.S. Navy operations in the region on the safety of survey vessels.
What we achieved
ERS provided strategic recommendations, advising the client on the potential risks and suggesting phased operational strategies to allow for real-time risk assessment and adjustment of operational plans as the situation evolved.
ERS's detailed analysis highlighted the significant risks involved, including the potential for their vessels to be viewed as a threat by PRC authorities, leading to possible interference or even hostile actions.
Based on ERS’s intelligence report, the offshore services provider made an informed decision not to proceed with the subcontract.
This decision ultimately protected the client from exposure to high-risk operations that could have led to significant financial loss, reputational damage, and potential legal complications.
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